It's early November and I'm getting angry at a party while tracking college basketball scores. It must mean only one thing: Seton Hall basketball is back! This year's team features very little depth, few proven players, and loads of people using the word "potential." This is an objective look at the team, but as a Seton Hall supporter and graduate, I hope they exceed the expectations in this preview. The men's basketball team is the strongest form of advertising for the school and a successful basketball team means a favorable impression of the state of Seton Hall among alumni and the general public.
Schedule – C
The schedule features the usual cupcakes (St. Francis, Yale, NJIT, Longwood) and an unimpressive group of “big name” programs. St. Peter’s can’t be lumped into the cupcake group because they made the NCAA Tournament last season and has a chance against the Pirates, who struggled against a St. Francis program that has never been to the NCAA Tournament. VCU, Auburn, and Wake Forest are down this year, as are potential opponents Georgia Tech, St. Joe’s, and LSU. Northwestern is another potential opponent and the favorite to win the Charleston Classic, yet they have never been to the NCAA Tournament. Dayton is the strongest non-conference opponent and should destroy the Pirates. My prediction for the non-conference schedule is 8-4, with losses to VCU, either Georgia Tech or St. Joe’s (second round on Charleston Classic), Auburn, and Dayton.
The Pirates' Big East schedule is arguably the easiest in the conference since they play DePaul and Rutgers two times each. My prediction for the Big East schedule is 5-13 with wins at home against DePaul and St. John’s, and on the road against DePaul, Rutgers, and Providence.
My prediction for the wins and losses this season did not change after the debacle against St. Francis.
Coaching – D
The strategy for this team is live by the three and die by the three. So far during his tenure, Coach Willard has shown very little creativity with the offense. If the three pointers are falling, then the team starts passing the ball and cutting to the hoop. If the three pointers are not falling, then the team just shoots more of them with little movement on offense. The game last season at home against Rutgers was an incredibly frustrating game. It was clear the Pirates were not getting it done on the outside, but no adjustments were made. Guys just kept chucking up bad shots and on each possession, four players had their feet cemented behind the three-point line. That strategy will not work unless you have players who can make three pointers. There was one player who was a threat last season, but he was out with a broken wrist or playing with a cast on his wrist for all but one game of the season. If the game against St. Francis is any indication, there are no legitimate threats from outside at this point in the season. The lack of adjustments nearly cost the Pirates a win against a very bad team and will cost them multiple games this season.
Another area that has contributed to this low score is recruiting. Followers of the program were told that things would change with Willard replacing Bobby Gonzalez. So far, nothing has changed. Gonzalez was criticized for bringing in transfers. So far, Willard has signed two transfers in just over a year as head coach. Gonzalez was criticized for bringing in academic risks and ineligible freshmen. The Class of 2011 includes Kevin Johnson, an ineligible freshman forward. The Class of 2012 was going to include Ray Austin, a junior college player who played for one JC, disappeared off the face of the earth for three years, is now playing for another JC, and then was going to somehow magically have three years of Div. 1 eligibility remaining for Seton Hall. According to recent speculation, Austin will not be eligible to commit to Seton Hall. So far, no 2012 commitments have been signed or given verbal agreements to attend Seton Hall. That is concerning. One of the reasons Louis Orr was fired was because he was perceived as an ineffective recruiter. In retrospect, the two coaches who have followed Orr have not come close to Orr’s level of recruiting. Kelly Whitney, Brian Laing, Jamar Nutter, Donald Copeland, Paul Gause and Grant Billmeier were excellent players for Seton Hall. For all the shots taken at Billmeier (yours truly included), only Herb Pope has been a better front court player for the Pirates since Orr was fired.
Obviously, I am not ready to give up on Willard after one season and a couple recruiting classes. That would be insane. There are more negatives than positives with his on-court strategies and his recruiting so far and that cannot be ignored. The positives do include an offense with the potential to be extremely potent with the right personnel. I would compare its potential to John Beilein’s offense at West Virginia during the Pittsnogle/Gansey years. On the recruiting front, Seton Hall was Kyle Anderson’s runner-up. Not since the Class of 2000 has Seton Hall been in the race for such a highly ranked high school prospect. Gonzalez always said he and his assistants could get the prized recruits, but he never backed up his words with any results. Willard is a doer and not a talker, which is what you need to be to be successful at a program like Seton Hall.
Hopefully for the sake of the program, this grade rises as Willard’s tenure progresses. This is a fair grade for the actual results on and off the court so far during the Willard era.
Guards – C+
Jordan Theodore is the senior leader of this team and it is a mystery as to which Jordan we will see. Will we see the dynamic sophomore who ran a fluid offense or will we see the shoot-first, pass-later junior that struggled with shooting percentage and turnovers last season? The version we saw as a junior fits Willard’s strategy, but it does not play to Jordan’s strengths. Jordan struggled mightily shooting the ball from the outside against St. Francis, but when he was allowed to penetrate, take controlled shots, and draw fouls, he took the team on his shoulders and forced overtime. This is the Jordan the team needs to be successful. The team needs to play to his strengths since he will be handling the ball more than anybody on the team. If Willard and his staff force Jordan into being just an outside player and jump shooter, the struggles he had last season will continue this season.
The rest of the guards are all unknown. Aaron Cosby and Harolds Karlis have a lot of hype surrounding them as freshmen and Karlis seems to be living up to the hype so far based on his preseason games and performance against St. Francis. Freddie Wilson and Sean Grennan are unknowns who were not highly recruited. If nothing else, they will get opportunities to show what they can do immediately because of the lack of depth at the guard positions.
Forwards and Centers – B
This group gets a B because of the proven talents of Fuquan Edwin and Herb Pope. Edwin is an excellent slasher who has a lot of potential on top of everything he proved last season. Pope will be a rebounding machine this season because he will be the only one in position to rebound on offense (everybody else will have their feet cemented outside the three-point line) and will be tough to box out on the defensive glass. Pope has the potential to lead the Big East in rebounding and be one of the nation’s leaders in that category as well. If Pope shows consistency on offense, he will be a double-double threat every night, regardless of the opponent.
Similar to the guards, there is a lack of depth and proven talent among the forwards and centers. Pat Auda has been hyped by the coaches and message board “experts,” but that’s a hype I’ll believe when I see it. Aaron Geramipoor is somewhere between Grant Billmeier and Alex Gambino at this point. If the depth on this team wasn’t so shallow, he likely would not get much, if any, playing time. Working to expand Geramipoor’s skill set is vital this season and in the spring and summer of 2012 because there will be a gaping hole when Pope is gone. If Geramipoor does not improve, he will slide behind Gene Teague (power forward transfer from Southern Illinois) and potentially Kevin Johnson (if he becomes eligible). Brandon Mobley is the only other eligible forward on the team and he is out indefinitely with a shoulder injury. Once again, he is an unknown, but did have some solid stats in high school.
Overall – C
This is a team with little depth, but a few very talented players. How the unknown and unproven players play this season will tell a lot about the future of the Kevin Willard era. It was tough to feel confident about this team before the St. Francis game and the confidence only dipped after that game. The good thing about this team is that with all of the unknown and unproven players, the distinct possibilities exists that they will progress together and improve beyond anybody’s expectations.
I am sticking with my tempered prediction of the team finishing slightly below .500 at 13-17 and 13th place in the stacked Big East. If I am proven wrong, I will be happy.
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